Local Sensitivity Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemic with Quarantine and Isolation using Normalized Index

Muhammad Abdurrahman Rois, Trisilowati Trisilowati, Ummu Habibah

Abstract


This study discusses the sensitivity analysis of parameters, namely the COVID-19 model, by dividing the population into seven subpopulations: susceptible, exposed, symptomatic infection, asymptomatic infection, quarantine, isolation, and recovered. The solution to the ordinary differential equation for the COVID-19 model using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta numerical method explains that COVID-19 is endemic, as evidenced by the basic reproduction number (R0) of 7.5. It means 1 individual can infect 7 to 8 individuals. Then  is calculated using the next-generation matrix method. Based on the value of R0, a parameter sensitivity analysis is implemented to specify the most influential parameters in the spread of the COVID-19 outbreak. This can provide input on the selection of appropriate control measures to solve the epidemic from COVID-19. The results of the sensitivity analysis are the parameters that have the most influence on the model.

Keywords


COVID-19; COVID-19 model; Runge-Kutta fourth-order; Next-generation matrix; Sensitivity analysis

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.35671/telematika.v14i1.1191

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